Conventional Wisdom on the District 19 Race
The Sun-Sentinel is running a story today by political writer Anthony Man which suggests that the coronation of Ted Deutch is practically assured, barring a “politically cataclysmic surprise”.
He points out the lack of experience of the Republican candidates, and the popularity of Ted Deutch whose State Senate district 30 contains more than half of the registered voters in CD19. He argues that just about every Democrat politician and interest group in the area has endorsed Deutch.
Read the full story HERE.
What is missing from the article is any more than a cursory mention of Scott Brown’s win in Massachusetts – something he considers a fluke. Since on the national level, the spin machine is cranked up to paint that win as “anger against 8 years of George W. Bush”, we should not expect any better understanding on the local level.
It is a long shot for sure, but there are several things that could favor a Deutch opponent:
1. Ted Deutch can be defeated in this district with only 25% Republicans if he is effectively tied to the Obama Agenda – something as unpopular here as it was in Massachusetts. In particular, the Obama attack on Medicare should be driven home with 53% of the voters being over the age of 56.
2. Turnout in a special election can be expected to be low. Effective grass roots get-out-the-vote efforts can help swing this factor in our favor, but the other side knows this too and the Democrat strongholds like Century Village are easier to mobilize than the suburbs. A large volunteer force that has put aside its primary differences and united behind a nationalized message will be needed to make a difference.
3. The Democrat has a large advantage in fund raising and name recognition. When the primary is over though, the Republican candidate may be able to tap a nation-wide pool of resources, much like Brown and Hoffman. This is definitely a race where the national grass roots networks can make a difference.
In our Town Hall event on 1/27, we should ask the three Republican candidates for their own assessment of this article and what their strategy will be to overcome the disadvantages in party identification and campaign cash.