Conventional Wisdom on the District 19 Race

The Sun-Sentinel is running a story today by political writer Anthony Man which suggests that the coronation of Ted Deutch is practically assured, barring a “politically cataclysmic surprise”.

He points out the lack of experience of the Republican candidates, and the popularity of Ted Deutch whose State Senate district 30 contains more than half of the registered voters in CD19. He argues that just about every Democrat politician and interest group in the area has endorsed Deutch.

Read the full story HERE.

What is missing from the article is any more than a cursory mention of Scott Brown’s win in Massachusetts – something he considers a fluke. Since on the national level, the spin machine is cranked up to paint that win as “anger against 8 years of George W. Bush”, we should not expect any better understanding on the local level.

It is a long shot for sure, but there are several things that could favor a Deutch opponent:

1. Ted Deutch can be defeated in this district with only 25% Republicans if he is effectively tied to the Obama Agenda – something as unpopular here as it was in Massachusetts. In particular, the Obama attack on Medicare should be driven home with 53% of the voters being over the age of 56.

2. Turnout in a special election can be expected to be low. Effective grass roots get-out-the-vote efforts can help swing this factor in our favor, but the other side knows this too and the Democrat strongholds like Century Village are easier to mobilize than the suburbs. A large volunteer force that has put aside its primary differences and united behind a nationalized message will be needed to make a difference.

3. The Democrat has a large advantage in fund raising and name recognition. When the primary is over though, the Republican candidate may be able to tap a nation-wide pool of resources, much like Brown and Hoffman. This is definitely a race where the national grass roots networks can make a difference.

In our Town Hall event on 1/27, we should ask the three Republican candidates for their own assessment of this article and what their strategy will be to overcome the disadvantages in party identification and campaign cash.


3 Responses to “Conventional Wisdom on the District 19 Race”
  1. EdFulop EdFulop says:

    Here’s a comparison you won’t hear made, either: As Fred says above, FL19 has only 25% of the registered voters listed as Republicans, right? The state of Massachusetts has only 12.5% registered Republicans!!! I don’t think I have to remind anyone what happened there last week. The parties DO NOT MATTER!!!!! This
    race, and many others in November, will be decided by the Independent voter! If the candidate with the right message becomes the champion of the conservative cause, and this race “goes national” the same way Scott Brown’s did last week — $4 million came into that race in the last 2 weeks of the campaign from sources ALL OVER THE COUNTRY — the Convential Wisdom will be dropped on it’s head. Let’s do whatever we can to help prepare a delicious crow for Tony Mann at the Sun-Sentinel to eat on April 14th!!!! Flip this house!!!!

  2. FRAN M. says:

    I’m campaigning for Curt Price and know he is the right candidate for the seat. Ed Lynch and Joe Budd have too much baggage, Curt Price is the peoples candidate fresh and unscathed. May the best man win and I hope it is Curt Price.

  3. Robert Davis says:

    Ed Lynch has the organization (2 years in the making) and the right take on the issues. While a Republican in a Democratic district, Lynch has made representing the people in District 19 his personal mission (unlike Robert Wexler from Maryland). Lynch’s ideas are not necessarily Republican nor Democrat, but on target for “we the people” that actually want a Representative. Are we Dems or Repub’s or are we people that have been ignored by the Representatives. Is Obama’s health care plan one that we endorse, how about Cap & Trade, how about annual trillion dollar deficits? I think not. Does our health care need to be improved, yes it does. The April Special Election will once again show our nation that “we the people” are in charge. Please vote.

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