In Tuesday’s election for Congressional District 19, Democrat Ted Deutch was the winner, receiving 62% of the votes cast. Voter turnout, an indication of voter interest (or lack thereof) was an anemic 15.2% of registered voters (10% in Broward and 17.4% in Palm Beach). The turnout in the 2008 election by contrast, was 73% in Broward and 72% in Palm Beach.
How did the vote compare?
Let’s look at the “liberal” vote versus the “conservative” vote in each election:
|2010||Deutch: 62.1%||Lynch + McCormick: 37.9%|
|2008||Wexler + Graber: 72.8%||Lynch: 27.2%|
So the “conservative” vote increased by 10% for those that turned out.
Were the dynamics of 2008 overwhelmed by the candidacy of Barrack Obama which provided for the high turnout numbers, and coattail effect on other Democrats down-ticket? Absolutely not- in 2004, the turnout was 67% and 75% in Broward and Palm Beach respectively very similar to 2010.
To see if that mattered in CD19 we can look at previous elections, but there was no conservative candidate in 2006 or 2004. In 2002, Wexler won against Republican Jack Merkl with 72.2% of the vote with a turnout of 45-50% in the 2 counties. From this I conclude that the increase in conservative votes in 2010 COULD be significant, but it is certainly not a trend that will bring us a victory any time soon (barring a scandal or some other unexpected event).
There is something going on in Broward though – the Lynch share went from 27% in 2008 to 43% in 2010. Of course Broward only accounted for 19.6% of the votes cast.
How did all the grass roots support for Ed Lynch help? We know that South Florida 912, DC Works for Us, and the South Florida Tea Party were all making calls and walking precincts independent of the campaign, and many members of those groups helped the campaign directly. Hard to say objectively, but it surely didn’t hurt. Many calls were to people who were Lynch supporters but didn’t know about the election. Of course on the other side, Organizing for America ran 17 local phone banks for Ted Deutch, last weekend alone.
South Florida 912 selected a subset of the precincts in northern Palm Beach and did “saturation calling”. When the county releases the precinct vote tallies tomorrow or Monday, I will compare them to 2008 and see if there is a statistical difference between the years and contrasted with other precincts in 2010. Stay tuned.
- If you live in District 19, VOTE TODAY!
- If you need to find your polling place, click HERE
- If you need a ride to the polls, the Lynch campaign can help: Click HERE.
- If you can take time to wave signs at the polls today from 3:00pm – 7:00pm contact: firstname.lastname@example.org
- If you want to make calls, contact: email@example.com
Let’s FLIP THIS HOUSE – starting with CD19
Calling activity continues. If you are already working with us, please finish your sheets, fax them back and take some more! If not, please get off the sidelines!
If you would like to help at the precincts tomorrow, the campaign is looking for volunteers to wave Lynch signs and pass out literature from 3:00pm to 7:00pm when the polls close. Coordination is through Karin Hoffman ( firstname.lastname@example.org ). Send her an email for a precinct assignment, and copy us at email@example.com – if there are enough volunteers in the north part of the county we can arrange for local drop off of materials and save you a trip to Boca Raton.
Volunteers – there will be a grand VICTORY PARTY tomorrow evening. Expect an email later with the time and place.
We continue our call from home activities, with many of our 40+ volunteers (some from as far as Chicago) coming back for more call sheets. Keep up the good work! If you’d like to join the team for the last 3 day push, send us a note at firstname.lastname@example.org
Saturday WPB Phonebank Cancelled in Favor of Call-From-Home
In this latest round of calling, most of the participants are comfortable calling from home and didn’t see the value in gathering at an office location to make calls. Therefore, we are cancelling the office phonebank and asking people to finish their current call sheets, fax them in, and ask for more. We’re approaching the 5000 call mark and need to turn out every Lynch supporter we can find.
Great progress so far – keep pushing for these last 6 days! If you want to join us and make calls from the comfort of your home, send a note to email@example.com and please provide a contact number where you can be reached.
Since we started phonebanking for Ed Lynch, the 9-12 Project has made over 2500 calls. We called Republicans and right-leaning independents. Of those we reached that were willing to indicate their support or lack of it, the response was 83% for Ed Lynch. Many of these did not know about the 4/13 election before the call, and now plan to vote.
So what are we doing next?
Phase 2 starts on Monday (4/5). We have selected out of all the CD19 precincts north of Boynton Beach, a list of voters who are both likely to favor Ed Lynch and to actually vote in the election. We need volunteers to call these voters from home in the evenings this week.
Phase 3 will consist of calling back those we have identified as supporters to remind them to get out and vote on 4/13. This we will do from Melissa’s office downtown WPB on Saturday Morning from 9:00am to 1:00pm.
Please RSVP below, talk to me at the 9-12 Meetup on Monday, or send a note to firstname.lastname@example.org if you can help out in this final push.
This race is starting to get national attention as a referendum on the Obama agenda since Ted Deutch is 100% on board and Ed Lynch is 100% opposed to this government assault on our basic liberties. Ed has been on national TV and radio, and reports his fundraising has significantly ticked up since the passage of Obamacare and the Democrat’s shabby treatment of Israel. If Ed wins it will reverbrate as loud as the Scott Brown upset in Massachusetts. PLEASE turn out and help make this happen.
Note:This 9-12 phonebank is independent of the Lynch campaign and we are creating our own calling lists as prelude (and practice) for assisting in other campaigns later in the year at national, state and local levels. Some of the 9-12 members are calling and precinct-walking directly with the campaign. By all means, if you would rather do that please do. Please help in any way you can.
The answer is they were all present at a 912 Meeting. The monthly meeting of the South Florida 912 group was a really great gathering of folks that are not only action oriented but eager and “ready to go”. In the gathering of over 90 people at a local Church people there had a chance to learn a little about the 912 and some local candidates in our area. We were also treated to some terrific music from Jim and Laureen Hunter who created their own version of “Our Country” for Joyce Kaufman. Joyce was a real delight with her energetic commentary about our nation, Israel and her belief in God. Joyce’s resounding message of each of us getting at least 1 other person to a meeting or a rally rings so true and is in line with my rally cry. My goal every day is to talk to 4 people about the events going on in our country to get people to talk. Do not presume that certain individuals are not interested or have made up their mind.
Today – (quick ADD moment) I came upon an individual who had emblazoned all over his car the car magnet that had Deutch for State Senate. This gentleman then proceeded to tell me how he had worked on this man’s campaign and how he is now running for the congressional seat in District 19. I asked the man a few pointed questions and you know what he told me? I am not voting for Deutch in the Special Election. I was very surprised when he told me that he and his wife had heard Ed Lynch speak and were impressed with him and they fear what is going on in Israel and the passing of the Health Care bill. I spoke to them and told them that early voting was going on today but they were going to wait to vote on the 13th. However since they had not realized that you could early vote they decided to go and vote today for Ed Lynch. Incredible !!! How is that for not judging a book by its cover? –
To continue my purpose and that of Joyce you must share and talk to others around you. It is a God given task. Sometimes people wonder why me why now? I will tell you God has us here at this time in this place for a reason. Will you deny that task? Not me, Not Joyce…. YOU?
At the 912 meeting we had a chance to meet various people running for office that all seemed to be honorable people. Remember to financially support these candidates as well as to volunteer for them. We also had the new group the 912 Century Village Seniors ” Super Seniors ” come out in force and they are excited and ready to help out and get involved. Great job to them and if you live in CV or have friends that do, look for a new blog that will be started for them on our SouthFLorida912.org site with the dates and times for their meetings and events.
I am looking forward to seeing everyone at the Tax Day Tea Party on April 15th.
In a Sun Sentinel poll, there is bad news for President Obama and congressional democrats. The statewide telephone poll of 625 registered voters taken after the passage of health legislation on March 23-24 had this to say:
- President Obama favorability: 37%
- Senator Nelson favorability: 36%
- Support health care law: 34%, opposed 54%
- Support health care law(seniors 65+): 25%, opposed 65%
Good news for Ed Lynch maybe?
For the full story, click HERE.
For those of you who don’t know, I spent most of my Saturday volunteering to help the Ed Lynch for Congress (District 19) and crew walk various neighborhoods, talking to residents and hanging door hangers on residences belonging to Republicans and Independents. I was impressed by Lynch and other volunteers who spent 6 hours continously walking door to door hanging door hangers and engaging the locals. We were extremely well recieved and most folks seem to be as unhappy with the affairs currently happening in DC as we are. What impressed me most of all was the fact that Ed Lynch was not in an office making phone calls, or barking orders to the workers like so many in congress do now. He was there doing just as much as anyone else. Those are the kind of people we need in DC, rather than those with the lowest average IQ combined between 500 people anywhere in the world (with few exceptions). So I am reposting this endorsement on S.FL 9/12 from my blog to show my support for Ed Lynch who has always treated me with the utmost kindness:
The Ed Lynch campaign is asking for volunteers to be poll watchers around the district on election day, 4/13/10. Poll watchers of both political parties provide a valuable service by insuring integrity of our elections. They observe what occurs inside the polling places and bring any discrepancies to the attention of the poll clerk and/or Supervisor of Elections. This is a way to participate in democracy.
Training will be provided in a class by Mark Hoch of the Republican Party of Palm Beach.
You must have official credentials from the Supervisor of Elections to be a poll watcher and the deadline to get your application in is March 29.
For more information, please contact:
Senior Advisor/National Media Liaison/
Internet Campaign Coordinator
Lynch for Congress-FL District 19
3/25 NOTE: We are planning a call-from-home campaign rather than a precinct walk on 3/27, to reach more people. Please RSVP to this post or send a note to email@example.com if you would like to participate. If you would rather go door to door, please contact the campaign at electlynch.com
The South Florida 9-12 Project leadership has endorsed Ed Lynch for Congress in district 19. Now is the time for our members to back up that endorsement with action.
Midterm elections typically have lower turnout than presidential elections, and special elections are lower still. That means that the candidate that can get their voters to the polls better than the other team has the advantage. Voter registration in the district leans left, with 55% of the 425K voters registered as Democrats. The remainder is 26% republican and 19% independent.
We can help tip the scales in Ed’s favor, if we can identify those folks most likely to vote for Ed (ie. the Republicans and Independents), contact them on behalf of the campaign, and remind them of three points:
- There is a very important special election on April 13 IN YOUR DISTRICT – the outcome of which could decide the fate of health reform in the congress.
- Edward Lynch is the conservative candidate who has campaigned against government takeovers of the banks and the auto industry, and now is fighting to reject the government takeover of your health care, which represents 1/6 of the US economy. His opponent on the other hand, stands solidly with Nancy Pelosi and the proponents of ever increasing government intrusion into our lives.
- YOU CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE – please get out and vote on 4/13, participate in early voting, or request an absentee ballot.
The South Florida 9-12 project plans to assist the Lynch campaign by selecting certain precincts where we believe the highest percentage of potential Lynch voters can be found, attempting to call all the Republican and Independent voters in them on Saturday 3/13, walk the precincts on 3/28, then call them again in the three days leading up to the election.
To do that WE NEED YOUR HELP!
Please RSVP to this post if you can help us turn out the vote for Ed Lynch, and we will contact you with the detailed plan.
You must be logged in to join the event.
West Palm Beach, FL, February 16, 2010- Congressional candidate Edward Lynch (FL-19) received a prestigious honor last week when a coalition of conservative groups announced that Mr. Lynch was selected to participate on a panel discussing illegal immigration with several other respected authorities on the topic during this week’s Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC).
The invitation is proof positive that Lynch’s efforts throughout his congressional district have attracted national attention, as Lynch is a candidate in the first Congressional election held in 2010, running for a seat that was vacated by Robert Wexler on January 4th of this year.
“I am honored to have been asked to participate on CPAC’s immigration panel in front of influential conservative activists from across the country. For the past two election cycles, our campaign has taken the fight to one of Congress’ most liberal members with a distinctly common-sense conservative approach, and our efforts have not gone unnoticed. We will continue to call broader national attention to our congressional race as we begin to take back OUR Congress,” said Lynch.
Lynch is scheduled to appear February 20th at 12:15 p.m. on a panel including Louisiana Senator David Vitter, former Reagan Administration official and syndicated columnist Linda Chavez, Heritage Foundation Senior Research Fellow Robert Rector, and the panel will be moderated by John Fund of the Wall Street Journal. CPAC is hosted by the American Conservative Union Foundation, the Young America’s Foundation, and Human Events.